What is Polish hidden agenda in Ukraine?
Russia announced the beginning of the second phase of the war, which means focusing on Donbas. Although it was not announced as officially as the Russian Ministry of Defense did, Ukraine’s allies are entering the second phase too.
Germany decided not to announce publicly any of the weapons and which way it is sending to Ukraine. It is to apparently prevent the convoys being exposed to Russian attacks. However, the reason that official Berlin did not state could be that based on what they are sending, their good intentions towards the Ukrainians are being questioned. Namely, the last delivery contained about 1,500 “arrow” air defense missiles. These are obsolete weapons whose efficiency can be questioned. It is also not very likely that Germany has stored and maintained the mentioned systems in the required conditions in the past decades. On the other hand, the destruction of obsolete weapons requires considerable financial resources. I doubt there would be much to benefit for Ukrainians from this. The very last news from Germany says about giving Ukraine fifty tanks. Apparently these will be new.
“NATO will not go to Ukraine”
NATO has decided to deploy an additional 40,000 troops to Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia. The absence of Poland is striking!? Poland persistently demands additional deployment together with the Baltic states. Biden reiterates that he wants to avoid a war with Russia “at all costs”. However, Warsaw is moving faster and faster towards entering the war in Ukraine. Asked if Ukraine should make some territorial concessions for the sake of peace, the American president said that Kiev should decide for itself.
Poland not only does not have sufficient capacities to defend itself from a possible invasion of Russia. However, they are also taking an increasingly active position in the war in the neighborhood. First, they had a proposal to send their planes to Ukraine (through the NATO base “Rammstein”), which would “drag” NATO into the war in Ukraine. They then devised a plan to send 10,000 troops from NATO and other countries to secure humanitarian corridors, including the creation of a no-fly zone over them and Ukraine’s largest cities. The Poles persistently insisted on this plan, which the Russians said in advance would mean war with NATO. The proposal did not “pass” at the summit in Brussels. However, the decision is in force that Poland can do whatever it wants outside the alliance!
I am not sure if that decision is part of a wider plan by the alliance. Or, is it the way NATO dumps those who don’t strictly follow the script? Why is Poland prepared and so itchy to take the risk? Well, I have my theory that is not widely discussed in media.
Poland wants in Ukraine
Andrzej Duda has already said that the Russia-NATO Founding Act has ceased to exist and that the document no longer binds anyone. The desire of official Warsaw to enter Ukraine is obvious. Just as it is evident that it relies on the statement of the American ambassador to the UN that “other countries (except the USA) can decide for themselves whether they want to send their army to Ukraine”.
Other countries (except the USA) can decide for themselves whether they want to send their army to Ukraine
American Ambassador to the UN
Recently, the issue of the dismemberment of Ukraine was dealt with by former Rada MP Ilya Kiva. He shared a map of divided Ukraine on a telegram channel. It was published by Polish television. On that map, the part of Ukraine that includes Kharkiv, Donetsk and Odessa is “given” to Russia. The Lions region is within Poland’s borders, and several southwestern regions are “divided” between Hungary and Romania.
Since 2014, Budapest and Bucharest, as well as Russia, have had a problem with the majority of their population and the ban on their mother tongue in Ukraine. Orban is, in part because of this, in active resistance in NATO and EU institutions against official Kiev. His government reiterated that it remains committed to the decision not to allow the delivery of weapons to Ukraine through its territory and not to stop the import of Russian oil and gas. Hungary is also prepared to make payments for Russian gas in Rubles. However, it seems that the current conflict has caused some serious disagreements between Poland and Hungary. At least something that will make EU bureaucrats smile for a second.
Russia does not want whole Ukraine. Neither does Poland
However, Poland’s entry into Ukraine would not necessarily mean the Polish conflict with Russia. Official Moscow says that its goal is not the occupation of Ukraine. Nor are the movements of the army and technology towards Galicia noticeable so far. However, Poland allegedly has aspirations towards the Kaliningrad region as well. I don’t think they are serious about that though. Taking over parts of Ukraine that Moscow does not want is very different than wanting to take over Kaliningrad that is part of Russia.
Although Russian officials do not speak publicly about anything other than their plans, it is indicative that Polish-Russian relations were renewed after almost 10 years just before the beginning of Russia’s entry into Ukraine. Namely, the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zbigniew Rau, visited Moscow on February 17 and met with Sergei Lavrov. Although it is not a surprise visit (it has been prepared since their September meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session), an “unexpected” open conversation was held and an agreement was reached on defining diplomatic solutions to the Ukrainian crisis.
One should not forget that Poland has some old hand experience in this sort of deals. It is not widely known that they joined Germans in dismembering Czechoslovakia before WWII. Just before being dismembered themselves just one year later. Does moving Polish border BACK to the east means that Germans could dream about doing the similar thing?