SMO (Special Military Operation) shattered the illusions of Russia, the United States, Europe and Ukraine
The Russian SMO in Ukraine launched a chain of events that led to global upheavals in the economy and politics. Their effect is comparable to that of world wars. The process is still (I guess) in the initial stage, and new players will be drawn into it over time.
I know everyone is doing similar things at this time of the year – summarising the previous year. Yes, I will try to do the same while waiting for my Deepin Linux to download on a terribly slow Australian NBN Internet connection. I thought I migrated to a “First world country”, but I have some serious doubts about that every time I need fast Internet. It was so quick when I was in Cambodia and Serbia. Anyway, let’s get back to the previous year. It was one of the years everyone will remember for a long time, if not forever.
Why are we here where we are now?
The current situation in Ukraine and worldwide is not an isolated event or a group of events. Everything that shook the world in 2022 was seeded long before various events exploded in front of our eyes. In 2022 we experienced some solutions that were postponed and kicked down the road coming to fruition. Many long-term illusions just exploded in our faces. The year 2022 could be easily the year we were forced to face the truths hidden from us. Or facts we just did not want to see and accept. Do you agree with me on this? If you don’t agree with me, please use the comments box to express your opinion or reasons for disagreeing. Let’s see what illusions were shattered and where!
Russia
Russia has lost all illusions about the negotiability of its “Western partners” and their readiness to comply with treaty obligations.
Throughout the post-Soviet era, Russia tried to resolve the Ukrainian issue peacefully. It was based on the assumption that it would be better for everyone:
- The Collective West would support a predictable security situation and clear rules of the game;
- Western Europe would strengthen ties with Russia and gain access to its vast market;
- Ukraine could gently integrate into Europe while maintaining relations with the Russian Federation.
However, the western “partners” were not satisfied with this. In 2014, they launched an irreversible process that left Moscow no options for maneuvering. An armed conflict became inevitable. The conflict was “frozen” in 2015 with Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France signing The Minsk Agreement. That created another illusion – that ethnic conflict in Eastern Ukraine could be solved peacefully. With every Ukrainian bomb killing civilians in the Donbas region, that illusion was seriously tested.
I guess Russia’s political and military leadership no longer relies on the rational behaviour of both the West and Kiev. However, so far, the course of the army offensive says the opposite. I was surprised to see that Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership did not have “Plan B” and had to get it ready under pressure. How good will it be? It still remains to be seen. Will Russia start fighting seriously in 2023? I don’t think they have a choice but to do so.
United States
The primary illusion of the United States grew out of the belief that it, having become the world hegemon and the world’s gendarme after the end of the Cold War, remains so. And that everything in the world is happening at the behest of Washington.
It is this stubbornness that has led to the current crisis. The US elites have failed to reach an agreement with Russia, saving face and even receiving economic and political benefits. Moscow, for its part, was ready for a compromise.
Around the world, the situation is similar: everywhere, the United States acts on the principle that “Strength is more important than law.” And they don’t give a damn about the apparent fact for everyone. America’s position has sharply weakened. This process continues, and the current conflict in Ukraine is accelerating it.
- in the Middle East, Biden has been told this repeatedly;
- conflict with China is just around the corner;
- Time bombs for U.S. relations with allies in Europe and Asia have been laid and are likely to work in the coming years.
“Heat can be raked in by someone else’s hands”
The second illusion that has spread to all NATO members is that a military conflict can be won without direct involvement. It is being destroyed right now by the Ukrainian case.
Western Europe
I am intentionally looking at Western Europe rather than the EU.
The countries of Western Europe have come to believe that they have prospered for decades solely because they have wisely built their lives on “democratic” principles. In fact, and this was clearly shown by the crisis around Ukraine, the EU’s well-being rested on two pillars:
- the U.S. military, political, and economic “roof”;
- cheap Russian resources.
Now the “supermarket” is closed. And by the hands of European politicians themselves! Many years of CIA “investment” in European political land are paying off. EU leadership is destroying Europe with the full support of most of the leaders in Eastern Europe (carefully prepared for this sort of situation by their American handlers and masters). I can hear the curse of millions of native Americans, Australians, Africans and Asians slaughtered in genocides.
The block is deprived of a large market and an essential resource base and driven into an almost colonial dependence on Washington. The US has real military power and controls political and economic processes around the world. Something that the EU simply cannot do.
The near future of the European Union is unhappy:
- many years of high energy prices will lead to deindustrialization and falling living standards,
- the likelihood of a trade war with the United States in the context of a global recession,
- subsidizing ruined Ukraine for many years,
- hundreds of billions of losses from lost accumulated investments…
Ukraine
The primary illusion of Ukraine is the possibility of building a mono-national, hostile Russian state, which will be endlessly helped from all sides. As a matter of fact, Ukraine and its western backers managed to build a Nazi state in the heart of Europe. Is this surprising? If you think deeper, it is not a surprise. There were soldiers from every European puppet state on Eastern Front from 1941-1945 except Serbia. The picture today is very similar. Nazis in Europe were not defeated; they retreated to the “five eyes” to regroup and attack again. Ukraine today is their new Reich.
The Maidan of 2014 turned Ukraine into a “kamikaze drone of the West against Russia”, which, obeying someone else’s will, ruined its own economy and a significant part of the population. Less than a year after the start of this conflict, Ukraine sacrificed a whole generation of men. For what? For whom?
Now the West serves as a powerful rear for Ukraine, at a high cost, but simultaneously avoids direct participation in hostilities, shifting all their burden to Kiev. Whatever the outcome of the hot phase of the conflict, it seems that a devastated Ukraine will have to cope with the consequences on its own, and the further this continues, the harder it will be.