Is Türkiye in danger of becoming Ukraine 2?

Is the collective west plotting to turn Türkiye into a new Ukraine? What to expect between now and the 14th of May 2023 – General and Presidential elections?

Since the Ottoman Empire collapsed, Türkiye served the Anglophone world’s interests in the Black Sea, the Balkan peninsula, East Mediterranean and Near East. British were (and still are) absolute masters of the “divide and conquer” strategy, and Türkiye was one of the region’s best-performing tools. Then came along Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is Turkey’s 12th and current president, who has held office since 28 August 2014. Since 9 July 2018, Erdoğan has served as the first president under the new executive system of government. The president is directly elected by eligible Turkish voters for a five-year term. Any president can serve a maximum of two times in office.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu paid a visit to the United States recently. It was carefully prepared by the two countries foreign ministries and was held within the framework of the new Turkish American strategic mechanism. The American and Turkish presidents decided to create it on October 31, 2021, in Rome. They agreed to “start a high-level dialogue” to “resolve issues on which Turkey and the United States do not agree.”

Officially, the mechanism was launched on April 4, 2022. It was during a visit to Ankara by US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland. The parties agreed to hold a meeting at the level of foreign ministers of the two countries in the same year. However, according to Turkish experts, they disagreed on an acceptable agenda. It was about isolating one or more problems in relations between Ankara and Washington, the solution of which could unravel the existing tangle of contradictions against the background of “crisis processes around the world.”

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Simultaneous game sessions on several chess political boards

It didn’t work out then. And now? On the eve of Cavusoglu’s visit to the United States, the pro-government Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah noted that the upcoming negotiation agenda is kept secret, and the minister in Washington will have to hold a “simultaneous game session on several chess political boards.”

These are the conditions for Turkey’s consent to the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO (the meeting was before the uncivilised burning of Kuran in Sweden). The problems of relations between Ankara and Athens in the Eastern Mediterranean. Issues of the Syrian settlement in the context of US cooperation with structures (Kurdish), which Turkey considers terrorist. Disagreements over Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400s and U.S. sanctions; possible deliveries of American F-16 fighters to Turkey. Relations with Iran and politics in Transcaucasia. Finally, the Ukrainian crisis.

Cavusoglu had to act as a “grandmaster”, acting according to the rule: “surrender” one or two games to his partner – Secretary of State Antony Blinken, conclude one or two draws, but win at least one board. The result of such a session was an agreement on the visit to the United States of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his holding of talks with his American counterpart Joe Biden BEFORE the parliamentary and presidential elections in Türkiye. Such a visit with that timing is considered to be in support of electing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“The United States and Turkey are close allies.”

However, it seems that Washington did not appreciate or accept the “chess show” by Cavusoglu. Blinken preferred to play on only one board. His talks with the Turkish minister were closed. No one knows the range of problems under discussion. The final statement of the State Department is written in general words with the indication that “the United States and Turkey are close allies.”

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According to some sources from Türkiye, Americans succeeded in pressing Türkiye to step away from the 3+3 (Russia, Türkiye, Iran + Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia) regional security initiative without the participation of the US and EU. An invitation for a visit has not been granted. It had not been declined either. There is not much time left between now and the next elections.

Turkish analytical portal A News International assesses, “the United States is seriously concerned about the situation when the Turkish ship fell off NATO anchors and began to drift in the harbour of the East.” Therefore, the Americans prefer not to comment publicly, conducting closed conversations with Ankara.

For them, it is now inconceivable to lose Turkey, both as part of NATO and as a country close to the Middle East. This is understood in Ankara, which is trying to use the geopolitical conjuncture in its own interests, preparing political “parties” with calculated consequences. But whether Erdogan will be able to adjust Biden’s position in this way, to receive an invitation from him to visit the United States, it is difficult to say.

Don’t forget “regime change” expert John Bolton

So far, a statement by former US National Security Advisor John Bolton, who calls for “excluding Turkey from NATO,” as it “does not behave like an ally,” and the upcoming elections in Turkey cannot be “considered free and fair,” is loud in Washington. In this regard, the Defense Journal of the Atlantic Council in Turkey believes that “relations between the United States and Turkey are approaching the point of no return,” The West threatens Turkey to “turn it into Ukraine-2.”

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Will Türkiye win independence? I hope so. We will not have to wait long to get the answer to that question. I am sure that Anglosphere will have its candidate for the elections. Suddenly, I found myself in the camp supporting Recep Tayyip Erdoğan! Not that I ever supported his opposition, either. I dare to say that this region’s future might be grim if this whole Recep Tayyip Erdoğan loses the May elections. What do you think?

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